# BTCUSD Market View

as_of: 2026-10-31T12:11:22Z · data_to: 2026-10-31T23:00:00Z · source: Orpheon by NexPatch (https://dev.warehouse.finpatch.ai/live/dashboard/btcusd-market-view)

> **For information and education only — not investment advice.** Data, model outputs and predictions shown here may be incomplete, delayed or wrong. NexPatch gives no guarantee for their accuracy, completeness or timeliness. Nothing on this page is a recommendation or an invitation to buy or sell any asset, and no decision should be based on it. Past results and back-tests do not predict future results.

## BTCUSD price

Window: Last 7 days · 2017 rows · data to 2026-10-31T23:00:00Z

| series | last | change over window | change % |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| X:BTCUSD.open | 77,274 USD | -3,252 USD | -4.04% |
| X:BTCUSD.high | 77,487 USD | -3,253 USD | -4.03% |
| X:BTCUSD.low | 77,270 USD | -3,237 USD | -4.02% |
| X:BTCUSD.close | 77,289 USD | -3,313 USD | -4.11% |
| X:BTCUSD.volume | 11.2 USD | -0.64 USD | -5.38% |
| har.BTC.price_q05_12h | 75,420 USD | -3,774 USD | -4.77% |
| har.BTC.price_q10_12h | 75,961 USD | -3,631 USD | -4.56% |
| har.BTC.price_q90_12h | 78,561 USD | -2,968 USD | -3.64% |
| har.BTC.price_q95_12h | 79,102 USD | -2,825 USD | -3.45% |

## BTCUSD 12 h move vs its forecast range

Window: Last 14 days · 335 rows · data to 2026-10-31T11:00:00Z

| series | last | change over window | change % |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| har.BTC.price_q05_12h | 75,420 USD | -4,227 USD | -5.31% |
| har.BTC.price_q10_12h | 75,961 USD | -4,207 USD | -5.25% |
| har.BTC.anchor_price | 77,261 USD | -4,194 USD | -5.15% |
| har.BTC.price_q90_12h | 78,561 USD | -4,181 USD | -5.05% |
| har.BTC.price_q95_12h | 79,102 USD | -4,161 USD | -5.00% |
| har.BTC.realized_price_12h | 77,261 USD | -4,234 USD | -5.20% |

## BTCUSD volatility regime

Window: Last 14 days · 4021 rows · data to 2026-10-31T11:15:00Z

| series | last | change over window | change % |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| BTC.vol_1d_pct | 45.8% p.a. | +9.01% p.a. | +24.50% |
| BTC.vol_5d_pct | 46.6% p.a. | +3.10% p.a. | +7.11% |
| BTC.vol_22d_pct | 39.3% p.a. | +2.66% p.a. | +7.28% |
| BTC.dvol_pct | 40.7% p.a. | +3.17% p.a. | +8.45% |

## BTCUSD activity: typical vs last hour

Window: Last 7 days · 2005 rows · data to 2026-10-31T11:15:00Z

| series | last | change over window | change % |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| BTC.vol_1h_typical_pct | 15.1% p.a. | -2.83% p.a. | -15.74% |
| BTC.vol_1h_pct | 9.27% p.a. | -3.95% p.a. | -29.89% |

## BTCUSD forecast reliability (30-day hit rate)

Window: Last 30 days · 719 rows · data to 2026-10-31T11:00:00Z

| series | last | change over window | change % |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| har.BTC.cov80_30d_pct | 80.0% | -8.33% | -9.43% |
| har.BTC.cov90_30d_pct | 91.7% | -1.67% | -1.79% |

## BTC Vol Carry — the paper strategy built on this market's volatility

_A link widget has no text form; see the dashboard itself._

## Definitions

### Pipeline: BTCUSD Market View

Used by finPatch: yes. The BTCUSD market in Explore, on the board and on the Home desk: price, the 12-hour and 1-hour ranges and their track record.

Bitcoin market view as one asset hub: price, the 12-hour range against what happened, how often the range held, the volatility regime with Deribit's implied volatility (DVOL), and the weekly activity rhythm.

What is forecast: how far the price may move in the next 12 hours and in the next hour, as a range (Bands v22: HAR volatility with conformal calibration). Not the direction: every direction test we ran came out at chance, so the range is centred on the current price.

Data: Polygon X:BTCUSD 5-minute bars from 2025-01-01; Deribit DVOL from our options node. The model reads its features from the Bands contract sink (a10e0068), Deribit DVOL for the 12-hour range (BTC Vol Carry · option structure) and the CPI/FOMC calendar for the 1-hour range (Crypto context). The forecasts are written by CronJobs, not by this pipeline: the 12-hour range hourly at :55, the 1-hour range every 10 minutes.

Schedule: hourly at :22. The manual trigger rebuilds the last 300 days (never add the full stage: it refetches Polygon).

## Data

[JSON](https://dev.warehouse.finpatch.ai/live/dashboard/btcusd-market-view.json)